Crash games: the maths behind the multiplier
Why the chance of reaching a multiplier falls as (1 - edge) / m, and why every cash-out target has the same average loss.
In a crash game, a multiplier starts at 1.00x and rises until it stops at a hidden crash point. A bet cashed out before the crash returns the stake times the multiplier; a bet not cashed out loses the stake. The simple screen hides some simple maths, and it explains why no cash-out target beats the house edge.
The key formula
In the commonly described model, the chance that a round reaches at least multiplier m is (1 - edge) / m. The house edge, usually 1% to 4% depending on the game, is built into how crash points are generated. The formula varies by game, so the stated edge of the specific game always applies.
Chances of reaching each multiplier, at a 1% edge and at a 4% edge:
- 1.50x: 66.00%; 64.00%
- 2.00x: 49.50%; 48.00%
- 5.00x: 19.80%; 19.20%
- 10.00x: 9.90%; 9.60%
- 50.00x: 1.98%; 1.92%
- 100.00x: 0.99%; 0.96%
At a 1% edge, about 49.50 rounds in 100 reach 2.00x, roughly 1 in 2.02. At a 4% edge, 48.00 in 100 do, roughly 1 in 2.08.
Why no target beats the edge
If you cash out at m, you receive m units when the round reaches m and nothing otherwise. The expected return per unit staked is m x (1 - edge) / m, which simplifies to 1 - edge. The multiplier cancels out.
So the expected return is 0.99 per unit staked at a 1% edge and 0.96 at a 4% edge, at every target. A low target pays often in small amounts; a high one pays rarely in larger amounts. The average loss per unit staked is the same.
A higher target does change the spread of results. The standard deviation of the return per unit staked is about 1.0 at 2.00x and about 9.9 at 100.00x. That measures how bumpy the ride is, not better value.
Other points worth knowing
- The median crash point is about 1.98x at a 1% edge and 1.92x at a 4% edge; half of rounds end below it.
- In the common formula, some rounds crash at 1.00x and no cash-out is possible: about 1.98% of rounds at a 1% edge and 4.95% at a 4% edge.
- Each round is independent, so a run of low crash points does not make a high one due.
Betting systems do not change this. Raising the stake after a loss alters the pattern of results, not the expected return, and can lead to much larger losses. A provably fair game lets you check a round after it ends, but that only shows the round was not altered. It does not remove the edge.
This guide is for information only and is for adults aged 18 or over, or the legal age where you live. Rounds are quick, so spending can add up fast. Set limits in advance and take a break if it stops being fun.
18+ only. This article is for information, not advice to gamble. Responsible gambling.
